Is This the Beginning of the Next Downturn?

With more than 1 million data points, we've used the Charity Excellence Data Store to track and report key metrics in near real time since 2018. This is the sector fundraising model showing the Cost of Living Crisis and the subsequent Government cuts we warned about which subsequently completely wrecked the weak recovery in 2023; we didn't begin recovering again until 2025. We've since been warning about the coming sector impact from the fallout from the Gulf. We saw the first dip in Sep 26 but it's beginning to look like a downturn (far right). We think it may well continue to fall through to Q1 of 2027 with sustained pressure to end 2027. However, there are very significant uncertainties, most of them negative. I may well be wrong and often am; let's hope so.